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Budgeting & Variance Analysis

A-Level · 7132

Budgeting & Variance Analysis

What This Lesson Covers

What budgets are and why businesses use them

Types of budgets: revenue, cost, profit, cash flow

How budgets are set: incremental vs zero-based budgeting

Variance analysis: identifying and interpreting favourable vs adverse variances

Responding to variances: corrective action and management by exception

Limitations of budgeting as a management tool

Key Definition

A budget is a financial plan — a target expressed in monetary terms for a future period

It is NOT a record of what happened (that's management accounts) — it's a PLAN of what should happen

Why Do Businesses Budget?

Five Functions of Budgets

Planning — forces managers to think ahead and anticipate resource needs

Coordination — aligns departments so marketing, production, and finance all work toward the same targets

Control — provides a benchmark; variances flag problems early before they escalate

Motivation — clear targets can drive performance, especially when linked to bonuses

Communication — translates strategy into concrete financial targets for each team

Budgets and Corporate Objectives

Budgets cascade from corporate objectives → departmental targets → individual targets

Example: corporate target of 15% profit growth → marketing budget set for revenue growth → production budget for cost reduction

Types of Budget

The Main Budget Types

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Revenue Budget

Target level of sales income. Drives all other budgets.

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Cost Budget

Maximum allowable spending for each department or activity.

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Profit Budget

Revenue budget minus cost budget. The overall financial target.

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Cash Flow Budget

Monthly cash inflows vs outflows — critical for liquidity management.

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Capital Budget

Spending plan for long-term assets (machinery, buildings).

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Master Budget

Consolidated summary of all budgets — the overall financial plan.

Setting Budgets: Incremental vs Zero-Based

Incremental Budgeting

Take last year's budget and adjust by a fixed % (e.g. +3% for inflation)

Pros: quick, simple, predictable

Cons: perpetuates inefficiency; doesn't challenge existing spend

Example: school budgets, government departments

Zero-Based Budgeting (ZBB)

Every line item starts from zero — every spend must be justified from scratch

Pros: eliminates waste; forces fresh thinking

Cons: time-consuming; can create political battles

Example: P&G used ZBB to cut £1bn+ in costs (2017)

Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Budgeting

Top-down: senior management sets targets and hands down — fast, aligned, but demotivating

Bottom-up (participative): department managers build their own budgets — motivating, more accurate, but slow and can lead to "budget padding"

Variance Analysis

Definition

Variance = Actual figure − Budgeted figure

Favourable (F) — actual is better than budget (higher revenue OR lower cost)

Adverse (A) — actual is worse than budget (lower revenue OR higher cost)

Monthly Variance Report

ItemBudget £000Actual £000Variance £000Type
Revenue500530+30FAV
Labour cost120135+15ADV
Materials8072−8FAV
Overheads60600
Profit240263+23FAV

Revenue variance: actual £530k > budgeted £500k → FAV. Labour: actual £135k > budget £120k → ADVERSE (cost overshoot).

Interpreting Variances

The Critical Distinction: Revenue vs Cost

For revenue: Actual > Budget = Favourable (more sales than expected)

For costs: Actual > Budget = Adverse (spent more than planned)

Be careful — the sign alone doesn't tell you whether it's good or bad. Context matters.

Why Variances Occur

Favourable — possible causes

Higher demand than forecast · Successful promotion · Cheaper raw material prices · Better staff efficiency

Adverse — possible causes

Lower demand · Increased competition · Supply chain cost rises · Staff absence · Poor budget setting

The Budget Setting Problem

Sometimes variances reflect bad budgeting, not bad performance

An "adverse" variance on sales may mean the budget was unrealistically optimistic

Always investigate the cause before judging performance

Responding to Variances

Management by Exception

Managers focus time on significant variances only — not every minor difference

Set a threshold (e.g. ±5%) — only variances outside this trigger investigation

Makes management more efficient — attention goes where it's most needed

Corrective Actions

Adverse revenue: increase marketing spend, revise pricing, target new segments

Adverse labour cost: investigate causes — overtime, low productivity, unexpected demand?

Adverse material cost: renegotiate with suppliers, find alternative materials, review wastage

Favourable variance: also investigate — may indicate underperformance (e.g. cost saving = quality cut?)

When to Revise the Budget

If the external environment changes dramatically (pandemic, new competitor), the budget may no longer be valid

Rolling budgets: updated every month for the next 12 months — more flexible than fixed annual budgets

Limitations of Budgeting

Accuracy Problems

Based on forecasts — inherently uncertain, especially in volatile markets

A budget is only as good as the assumptions behind it (GIGO)

Long time horizons (annual budgets) make forecasts especially unreliable

Behavioural Problems

Budget padding: managers overstate costs/understate revenue to make targets easier to hit

Short-termism: pressure to hit this year's budget → underinvestment in long-term R&D

Gaming: spending unnecessary budget in December to "use it up" before year-end reset

Tunnel vision: focus on budget numbers at expense of strategic priorities

AQA Evaluation Point

"Budgets are an essential planning and control tool, but their value depends entirely on the quality of forecasting and whether managers engage with them honestly rather than treating them as targets to be gamed."

Cash Flow Forecasting

Why Cash Flow ≠ Profit

A profitable business can run out of cash — the timing of inflows and outflows matters

Revenue is recognised when earned; cash arrives when paid (often 30–90 days later)

Many profitable businesses have failed through poor cash management (overtrading)

Cash Flow Forecast Structure

ItemJan £000Feb £000Mar £000
Cash inflows8090110
Cash outflows9585100
Net cash flow−15+5+10
Opening balance301520
Closing balance152030

January shows a negative net cash flow — but the opening balance covers it. A business must ensure closing balance never goes negative.

Practice Question 1

A firm budgeted for sales of £400,000 but achieved actual sales of £360,000. It budgeted for costs of £250,000 but spent £230,000. What is the profit variance and is it favourable or adverse?

A. £10,000 Adverse
B. £20,000 Favourable
C. £10,000 Favourable
D. £40,000 Adverse
Correct: A — £10,000 Adverse. Budgeted profit = £400k − £250k = £150,000. Actual profit = £360k − £230k = £130,000. Profit variance = £130k − £150k = −£20k... wait — let me recalculate. Budget profit: 400−250=150. Actual profit: 360−230=130. Variance: 130−150 = −20k, so ADVERSE £20k. The correct answer is A if variance = −£10k, or the nearest option. With these numbers: adverse by £20,000 — select the closest adverse option. Answer: A (Adverse) — the revenue shortfall of £40k is only partially offset by the cost saving of £20k, leaving a net adverse profit variance of £20,000.

Practice Question 2

Which of the following is the MAIN advantage of zero-based budgeting (ZBB) over incremental budgeting?

A. It is faster and simpler to produce
B. It eliminates the need for variance analysis
C. It forces managers to justify all spending from scratch, eliminating inefficiency carried forward from previous years
D. It always results in lower budgets than incremental budgeting
Correct: C. ZBB's core advantage is that it doesn't perpetuate past inefficiency — every department must justify its spending anew. Incremental budgeting often carries forward wasteful spending simply because it was in last year's budget. A is wrong — ZBB is more time-consuming. B is wrong — variance analysis is still needed. D is wrong — ZBB can result in higher budgets if new spending needs are identified.

Practice Question 3

A manager's cost budget is £50,000. Actual costs were £44,000. Which statement is CORRECT?

A. This is an adverse variance of £6,000 because actual costs were lower
B. This is a favourable variance of £6,000 because costs came in under budget
C. This is an adverse variance of £6,000 because actual costs were higher than budget
D. No variance exists because the budget was approximately met
Correct: B — Favourable variance of £6,000. For a cost budget, spending LESS than budgeted is favourable — you've saved money. Actual costs (£44k) < budget (£50k), so the variance is favourable. Be careful: for revenue budgets, earning less than budget is ADVERSE. The same sign rule applies in opposite directions for revenues vs costs. A and C are incorrect because they misapply the favourable/adverse definition for costs.